Okay Footy fans, this is the big tomale', well it's what I've waited almost 200 days for. The NRL is finally here, all the hard hits, the real hits and some more hits... just ask the bloke Benji short arm jabbed. Anyhow it's a big year and one that has Saints fans already roaring with World Domination!!! Can the Dragons go back to back, they have the coach, they have the roster, recent history is against them, not even an over indulgent News funded Melbourne could run back to back premiership campaigns.
I think the Warriors, Tigers, Roosters and Broncos are the biggest most serious top four type threats to the Dragonaught for varying reasons, look at their top 17 players and the answers will stare you in the face. Alas the NRL being the NRL, injuries will determine fate, the Bronco's lack depth in this department, while the Tigers have a guy like Moltzen on the bench... you can do your own math with the Chooks and Cuzzies.
Many sides are blooding new halves combos this season. Beau Henry comes in with plenty of wrapping paper at Newcastle, not sure if he's on Tinkler's pay roll yet but the Knights look a team on the rise in 2011. Manly have strutted out the competitions youngest halves comination with 30 gamer Foran lining up beside zero game rookie Daly Cherry-Evans. Cherry-Evans has had a couple of exciting seasons in both Toyota cup (2009 minor premiership) and Qld Intrust Cup (player of the year 2010) but this season behind a solid Sea Eagle forward pack and with Brett Stewart back bigger than ever, the new maroon number 7 has little in the way of excuses.
Melbourne have forcibly shedded 12 first graders from last years squad, their 2011 campaign has a smell of Raiders 1992 about it. Check your history. And while I'm talking about Canberra, look awesome on the team sheet but the loss of the massively dominant Terry Campese may have the Green Machine chasing the pack all season, 2012 is most likely their year.
Souths have bought the big gun Inglis, but he come's looking more like a back rower. Halfback Sandow finished last season better than most give him credit for, they should make the eight with that forward pack. The Titans are too consistent to write off as semi final hopes, with the ability of Scott Prince and their home ground fortress they should be in the mix all year.
There are about four players in the Eels squad that I've never heard of, hopefully for Parra fans these guys do the blue and gold proud but all things being equal surely they're not serious contenders in 2011. The same deal with the Cowboys, the loss of Brent Tate combined with the complete talent turnover buries them in my book. The Bulldogs remind me of a club that gets talked up on reputation, they've lost their fullback and halfback and turned over two props both for different reasons. Consistency may be difficult to find until it's too late, the dogs won't be barking in 2011.
Penrith are difficult to get a read on, they finished in 2nd place in 2010 but their back end of year form was weak. Injuries didn't help them but they've lost their left hand strike weapon in Pritchard and other teams have studied the kick for tries manifesto. Their forwards are good, backs exciting, they could finish practically anywhere.
And then Cronulla are rounding out the tail. Like an old bulky war horse, they should be racing in the provincials.
Round One:
Roosters v Souths @ SFS: This is a very even match with Carney missing. Both have good forwards, I like the Roosters backs but as I said earlier, I think Sandow looked better at the back end of last year, this could be the year he comes of age. Anasta is more of a backrower these days. It'll be close but I have a Souths by 4 in an upset win as the first leg of my multi.
Broncos v Cowboys @ Suncorp: Irrespective of who trots out for the Brisbane based club, the Bronco's always look sharp early in the year. The Cowboys may keep it close but Lockyer is the king of the clutch, Broncos by 1.
Titans v Dragons @ Skilled: Titans will throw the kitchen sink at the Saints, but inevitably, Prince will be forced across field, Bird will try everything, Preston will dart and weave and the Dragons will strangle it all. St.George by 7.
Warriors v Eels @ Eden Park: Warriors look a settled team in for a big year, you can't say the same for the Parra squad, their backline looks like a collander, Warriors by 14 and they're the last leg of my two leg multi.
Storm v Sea Eagles @ AAMI: I can't go past the amount of top line players missing from the Melbourne line up since last year, yes they have the spine but their front row is the who's who of John West rejects. The Storm are a proud club but so to are Manly and the latter will walk away with two close crumbs.
Raiders v Sharks @ Canberra: Raiders for mine, they have the forwards to match the Cronulla tight six while they have the backs to blow the Sharks away. Raiders by 8.
Panthers v Knights @ Centrebet: Without Jennings and considering the loss of Pritchard, then consider the trial form I can't back Penrith with my money. I think the Knights have looked solid in their trials and they will be ready for Penrith Park.
Bulldogs v Tigers @ ANZ: Bulldogs will need to be at their best to beat a genuine top four team. That's what the Tigers are and I'm backing them to have too much for the Dogs as a Monday night specialist.
Good luck with your tips and as stated above my bet of the week is Souths into the Warriors for a combined price of $2.95. Start slow when running blind people, God Speed.
