Thursday, March 10, 2011

NRL 2011 preview and tips for Round 1

Okay Footy fans, this is the big tomale', well it's what I've waited almost 200 days for.  The NRL is finally here, all the hard hits, the real hits and some more hits... just ask the bloke Benji short arm jabbed.  Anyhow it's a big year and one that has Saints fans already roaring with World Domination!!!  Can the Dragons go back to back, they have the coach, they have the roster, recent history is against them, not even an over indulgent News funded Melbourne could run back to back premiership campaigns.   

I think the Warriors, Tigers, Roosters and Broncos are the biggest most serious top four type threats to the Dragonaught for varying reasons, look at their top 17 players and the answers will stare you in the face.  Alas the NRL being the NRL, injuries will determine fate, the Bronco's lack depth in this department, while the Tigers have a guy like Moltzen on the bench... you can do your own math with the Chooks and Cuzzies. 

Many sides are blooding new halves combos this season.  Beau Henry comes in with plenty of wrapping paper at Newcastle, not sure if he's on Tinkler's pay roll yet but the Knights look a team on the rise in 2011.  Manly have strutted out the competitions youngest halves comination with 30 gamer Foran lining up beside zero game rookie Daly Cherry-Evans.  Cherry-Evans has had a couple of exciting seasons in both Toyota cup (2009 minor premiership) and Qld Intrust Cup (player of the year 2010) but this season behind a solid Sea Eagle forward pack and with Brett Stewart back bigger than ever, the new maroon number 7 has little in the way of excuses.

Melbourne have forcibly shedded 12 first graders from last years squad, their 2011 campaign has a smell of Raiders 1992 about it.  Check your history.  And while I'm talking about Canberra, look awesome on the team sheet but the loss of the massively dominant Terry Campese may have the Green Machine chasing the pack all season, 2012 is most likely their year.

Souths have bought the big gun Inglis, but he come's looking more like a back rower.  Halfback Sandow finished last season better than most give him credit for, they should make the eight with that forward pack. The Titans are too consistent to write off as semi final hopes, with the ability of Scott Prince and their home ground fortress they should be in the mix all year.

There are about four players in the Eels squad that I've never heard of, hopefully for Parra fans these guys do the blue and gold proud but all things being equal surely they're not serious contenders in 2011.  The same deal with the Cowboys, the loss of Brent Tate combined with the complete talent turnover buries them in my book.  The Bulldogs remind me of a club that gets talked up on reputation, they've lost their fullback and halfback and turned over two props both for different reasons.  Consistency may be difficult to find until it's too late, the dogs won't be barking in 2011.

Penrith are difficult to get a read on, they finished in 2nd place in 2010 but their back end of year form was weak.  Injuries didn't help them but they've lost their left hand strike weapon in Pritchard and other teams have studied the kick for tries manifesto.  Their forwards are good, backs exciting, they could finish practically anywhere.

And then Cronulla are rounding out the tail.  Like an old bulky war horse, they should be racing in the provincials.

Round One:

Roosters v Souths @ SFS:  This is a very even match with Carney missing.  Both have good forwards, I like the Roosters backs but as I said earlier, I think Sandow looked better at the back end of last year, this could be the year he comes of age.  Anasta is more of a backrower these days.  It'll be close but I have a Souths by 4 in an upset win as the first leg of my multi.

Broncos v Cowboys @ Suncorp: Irrespective of who trots out for the Brisbane based club, the Bronco's always look sharp early in the year.  The Cowboys may keep it close but Lockyer is the king of the clutch, Broncos by 1.

Titans v Dragons @ Skilled:  Titans will throw the kitchen sink at the Saints, but inevitably, Prince will be forced across field, Bird will try everything, Preston will dart and weave and the Dragons will strangle it all.  St.George by 7.

Warriors v Eels @ Eden Park:  Warriors look a settled team in for a big year, you can't say the same for the Parra squad, their backline looks like a collander, Warriors by 14 and they're the last leg of my two leg multi.

Storm v Sea Eagles @ AAMI:  I can't go past the amount of top line players missing from the Melbourne line up since last year, yes they have the spine but their front row is the who's who of John West rejects.  The Storm are a proud club but so to are Manly and the latter will walk away with two close crumbs.

Raiders v Sharks @ Canberra:  Raiders for mine, they have the forwards to match the Cronulla tight six while they have the backs to blow the Sharks away.  Raiders by 8.

Panthers v Knights @ Centrebet:  Without Jennings and considering the loss of Pritchard, then consider the trial form I can't back Penrith with my money.  I think the Knights have looked solid in their trials and they will be ready for Penrith Park.

Bulldogs v Tigers @ ANZ: Bulldogs will need to be at their best to beat a genuine top four team.  That's what the Tigers are and I'm backing them to have too much for the Dogs as a Monday night specialist.

Good luck with your tips and as stated above my bet of the week is Souths into the Warriors for a combined price of $2.95.  Start slow when running blind people, God Speed.

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

NRL still Gallopping in the face of Cyclone Expansion.

Recently I've heard some fairly dispariging and negative comments aimed at National Rugby League (NRL) CEO David Gallop.  Especially since an interview printed by the Daily Telegraph (Sydney) on 2/02/2011 and orchestrated by Paul Crawely.  It's been pretty much standard fare.  I kept my ear to radio, heard the pub talk, read the newsprint, trolled the forums and came to the conclusion, "an easy bash up".
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If the average punter bumped into tall Dave on the street, well he may indeed cop the likes of - The Independant Commission is taking too long!  The AFL monster's expanding, where's our new clubs?  The TV deal's too small!  Bring back the Bears! Why did they close the squash courts at Baulko?  The Brisbane Thoroughbreds escaped from the paddock!  Karmichael's on ALPHA?  Ryan Tandy's a guest of Her Majesty. There's a cyclone in Queensland... What's doing Dave, what's doing?
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I read earlier in the week a headline claiming Gallop was - "Stalling on the Commission".  Read the article, load of crap.  Made no specific mention of Gallop saying any such thing, but it made great ammunition for the beer swillers that don't bother reading text that's printed smaller than 14 font.  Personally I don't have any control over the font here.
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Down to the nitty gritty.  We have around four weeks til round one of the NRL season.  Historically, this is the time when players need to hide their shoes while David Gallop prays he's picked the right face to promote the game.  The stalling, or slow moving regarding the implementation of this code saving Independant Commission (IC) simply isn't part of Gallops bag.  He isn't even one of the key players in the overhaul, instead he is the face of running the game under the current set up.  Deciding who and what will be the make up of the IC lay between the partnership committee and the current national and state rugby league bodies, while being greased by the Michael Searle led working party.  You gotta love the Gold Coast.

On that note I'm sure any serious discussion regarding expansion at the moment is on hold until the IC is solid, sorted and swinging. You don't expand to new areas when management is in transition.  For anyone to expect Gallop to make grandiose statements simply to satisfy the forum dwelling massess regarding a key and emotive issue such as expansion is seriously further out than past Mars.  This kind of issue will not be his call alone to make in any event. Yes he'll eventually be asked for a degree of input, and from reading his stuff he has clearly outlined what he is personally looking for in expansion ie;

"I've said to the various bid teams, they need to have a sustainable model not just for their own district but they need to be bringing something to the table that everyone can benefit from. Be it increasing the game's national profile which will help with broadcasting and sponsorship, or it's shoring up a strategic area the game has to be conscious of, they are the types of things that need to be considered."Dave Gallop - Daily Telegraph (Sydney) Feb 2, 2011.

For some reason people still bag him out for apparently not saying anything, or not saying enough to their personal liking, these people are obviously just skimming the surface of articles or they have an agenda against David Gallop. Whether you like him or not, he has clearly stated what he is personally looking for regarding expansion clubs and the expansion issue in general. That comment is absolutely as clear as he can be at this stage considering the current status of the IC.  It is obvious David Gallop is keen to grow the game, but like any responsible leader, he doesn't want to do it at the expense of current clubs or to the detriment of the code. No wacky outposts that need constant life support, no Building the Education Revolution and no nothing burger expansion clubs that offer little in the way of sponsorship and media rights.

Gallop is correct to be cautious about expansion just in case it turns out later to be "axpansion". Gallop is also correct to not throw effort after foolishness, he is correct in wanting to pick the most appropriate expansion clubs at the most appropriate time. The game can't afford stuff ups on an issue that is so spirited as club expansion.

I also read in the interview some target questions relating to the return of Chris Houston.  In regards to the Danny Wicks issue, those questions were flat out loaded, no win, sign here questions. Gallop had really no way of answering then spraying the Glen 20 to avoid the "before flushing toilet smell". The court has made its decision on Chris Houston and the DPP have decided it is in the communities interests not to appeal.

Bottom line is, the Houston matter is well and truly dead in a criminal sense and that is the judge's decision. For anyone to suggest Gallop is weak for not commenting is an ignorant so and so. Commenting on such a thing on a public forum such as a newspaper interview throws up any number of issues that could sail uncomfortably close to defamation. Gallop is a lawyer, he knows what he can and can't say and he has or had little choice but to respect the judges decision. Paul Crawely as an interviewer is only doing his job but seriously, who ever sanctioned the interview should have set out parameters for a question of that nature.

Look I'm happy for people to smash Gallop when he knee jerks after a Jacky Magnay gang banger exposay, but attacking him for what he did or did not say in this interview, lacks perspective and balance.
Another good talk with Greg Camilleri.

Friday, January 7, 2011

Aussie Selectors still playing the spin.

Andrew Hilditch's claim that the selectors did a good job (regardless of what type of belter he is) comes as a massive surprise to me.

To look at our selections briefly in this series:

Our incumbent spinner was dropped on the eve of the series after brandishing a career average of 32. We all know how he's been travelling on the domestic scene since the drop.

Three spinners were chosen throughout the series without showing any signs of obvious progress as spinners.  One of these spinners (Steve Smith), was also chosen to bat at #6 but was then moved down to #7 for the final test while only bowling 31 overs out of a possible 438 overs, over the course of three test matches.  That is too little bowling to take up a bowling position, but it is obvious he is not considered a top 6 batting option.  I do not understand this test selection at all. 

Seriously when you look at the test team picked for the final match of the series, the match where we had the whole series to reflect upon, and the pressure to win was no longer at a premium, on paper it's difficult to believe that Australia fielded their best six batsmen in that test. We aren't getting the best out of Watson as an opener either, it is diminishing his more than handy bowling, he should be the allrounder at #6.

And persisting with Mitchell Johnson and Ben Hilfenhaus, one has obviously lost it and is no longer test standard, the other is either pathetic, pathetic, tragic, awesome in Perth, rubbish again. On his form over the past 3 years, you would only pick Johnson in Perth and in South Africa, anywhere else he has bowled all over the place byes to the boundary crap.

It's all very well for Andrew Hilditch to speak about talent in his defence, but the bottom line is batsmen are supposed to score runs, bowlers are called upon to take wickets, and test players are supposed to stand up and be counted.

This series, the biggest of our home cycle, well it is plain we lost three of five tests by more than an innings - a record nadir point in over 130 years of test cricket. None of the new players this current group of selectors have picked have shown progress, this indicates poor judgement.

Absolving himself (Hilditch) of blame... just the arrogance of it, should send Cricket Australia into damage control, more so than losing the series in the manner that we have.

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Aussie Cricket - What is the Plan Fella's?

This is fairly long, and it's my first ever blog.  There's no time like the present to start... and if you like Cricket as much as me, what a time to kick off a blog.  Really I'm just another punter who is a big time sports nut, you can disregard the following as yet another punters wafty, over thought, irrelevant opinion, or you can use it to make ideas of your own. 

Regarding the cricket, it appears that the plan ahead for the Aussie test team is a break for most of the players following the Sydney Test as there is the One day series vs England and then the World Cup at the end of Feb. After that the Test team is scheduled to reconvene for a two match test series vs Bangers in Bangladesh. Then we have a fairly long break until October where we venture to lions den, South Africa for a three match series (seriously only three matches).

Okay with all that in mind, and also midful of rebuilding a winning culture and building toward the future, I have made the following assesments.

Basically I don't want to see the Baggy Green cheapened any more than it already has. Phil Hughes and Steve Smith are pretty lucky to have scored baggy greens and jumped ahead of a guy like David Hussey who has had runs on the board at First Class level for many, many seasons. Phil Hughes form this year has been extremely poor. I still do not know what the point of selecting Michael Beers has achieved but I guess that will never be answered. These decisions are what is upsetting the balance of cricket in this country. I'm not exactly sure who is responsible for the blame anymore. Is this all to do with Punters influence? Has Hilditch no eye for the future shape of the team? Or is it ultimately Cricket Australia (CA) who have continued the gutless, directionless line since the crazy Sydney Test versus India a few seasons back.

For mine, blame aside, it appears the team has put its complete bowling stocks into the development of Mitchell Johnson and instead of becoming a spearhead... the man with the big sleeve tattoo has become an enigmatic first change option who can't control the new ball. Siddle is honest and gutsy... a solid resume for a first change bowler, but he isn't an opening bowler. Ryan Harris appears to have something special, gee I like this guy, but is seriously and sadly he is injury prone. Hilfenhaus gets named in the eleven consistently but at the moment he appears to be a fine leg fielding specialist. More on the bowling stocks later.

Why talk of bowling later? Because the main issue for this series isn't our bowling. Our inexperienced bowling lineup can't defend scores of 98 all out. McGrath and Warne at their peak couldn't do it either. Our batting lineup is vastly over rated, out of form, unbalanced and batting out of position.

Our best opener currently is Shane Watson and it is obvious he doesn't have the concentration at test level to hit those big scores the position demands. He bats like a six, and if he is put back to five or six then his all round abilities come back into play. At the moment when this blonde bombshell is bowling, once his strong point, he now throws down cream pies that are too slow to deceive. This bowling form as taken shape since he nailed down the openers slot. Admirable job, and I'd have no problem with him at opener if he'd converted at least a quarter of his fifities into big, juicy tons, but 15 half centuries with only two extra centuries is not the figures of an Australian opener in a successful national team.

Watson's makes my team either five or six, he is a good player with an excellent batting technique, but he does not make it as an opener. I'm sure slotting down the order will see both his batting and bowling stats improve.

I'm not sure what to make of Phil Hughes. He has so many technical flaws but he looks to be a confidence player. He is young and obviously a long term prospect, One option is to stick with him for Sydney, hope that he finds more confidence against Bangers and then pencil him in for a return to his happy hunting ground on South African turf with the promise of a full away series. If he falls flat in Africa against a quality attack, it's likely his technique has been found out. Option two is to say; Every nation has watched enough footage of Phil Hughes to work out his flaws and that sending him to South Africa for a second run is like hoping lightning strikes twice. It usually doesn't, the kids recent form at all levels has been making my skin crawl which must surely be a confidence thing. As an opener he looks more like Sri Lanka's former keeper batsman Kaluwitharana, hit and hope to score super quick runs before the inevitable walk to the pavillion... bashing his way into form. Personally I'd bid Phil Hughes adios until he regains confidence in the Shield. I don't think he is ready for international cricket, and his form this summer certainly does not warrant selection, but I think he's class, he's young and that's something to build on.

I'd replace Phil Hughes with Usman Khawaja for the Sydney test. Usman is an out and out opener, he has played all his grade career there and only slotted into #3 to fit into the top heavy Blues line up. The kid is in form, he leads the Australian first class averages and runs list for this summer. His form last summer was also outstanding, he looks all class and I reckon it's time to strike when the iron is smoking hot. I'd give Khawaja the whole Bangers test series and with the promise of the entire South African 3 test tour and including the next Aussie summer 4 test series against the cocky Indians. By the end of that he would have played in 10 tests. Enough to make an accurate assessment of his abilities at the highest level including a face off with the two topped ranked nations home and away.

Ricky Ponting stays in my team, despite umpire disputes he keeps the captaincy but drops down to five or six. We need his leadership in the team, no one else has put their hand up, no one else commands any kind of respect, no one else has stood tall or even looked like a captain for more than three consecutive tests lest a series. Ricky should keep and be guaranteed the captaincy for the next 14 months. Selectors should start grooming three or four blokes behind the scenes assessing their leadership quality, and then assess Punters mental and batting ability status at the conclusion of the next Australian summer.

Mike Hussey moves up to opener, partnering and mentoring young Usman. Mike is an elder statesman of the team. He was an opener his entire state career. He is in good form. He is not going to be in the team in in two years time. Now is the time to sacrifice his hiding place at #5 and give back to the team while he is in form. This is the decision. End of story.

Michael Clarke gets the award for the biggest disappointment of the Ashes. He has had five chances this series to stand tall, five clear opportunities to save Australia, five moments to create partnerships and show some leadership. Alas all we have collectively seen is that when the heat is on, Clarkie and his tuff stickers melt quicker than Frosty the Snowman in the Coober Pedy summer sun. The dream could be well and truly over for the Pupster. This series was the biggest series he has ever played in, he is at an age most acknowledge one to be at the peak of their batting powers. He was going to be The Man this series, that was the plan. Do we drop him? Surely not, the guy is a dead set super star with his best years ahead! I'm not sure what is going on in his head. I do recall seeing two years of absolute world class Michael Clarke form recently, and so much investment has gone into the current Vice Captain....

My personal gut feel decision on Michael Clarke... I'd absolutely back him, back him hard, I'd consider promoting him to first drop, especially on a spinning track, (he is probably most suited to batting at 4 outside of the sub continent).  Cometh the hour cometh the man.  This next twelve months is Michael Clarke's opportunity to create & reshape how history views him without the pressure.

I do not know what is going on with Simon Katich. I understand he is injured, I understand he has made claim offering a hope to be ready for the Sydney test. But despite his obvious guts, and his hairy chest, the form of Katich has not been earth shattering either. He is 36 years old in 2011, This choice is to leave him out of the squad for the remainder of his life or put him in at opener because there's dead set no one else. Brad Hodge has retired damn it... and he has subsequently gone and trashed everyone from Andrew Hilditch to Whoopie Goldberg so there is no point talking about his good form, but personally I'd love to show this man some love and see him at first drop. I'd probably drop Simon... sorry mate.

David Hussey. He averages 55 at Shield level and that record has run for 8 years and not a meagre 5 minutes. He topped the First Class run tally last summer, he's running 6th on the runs list this summer. The form line is good, historically Australia play well with brothers in the team, and I think David Hussey has more than earned a baggy green.

David Hussey is at the moment knows his game far better than a player like Steve Smith. I still don't know whether Smith even knows whether he is a batsman or a leg spinner or a work in progress or someone who is there to lift team spirit. Seriously on that note, we shouldn't be handing out test numbers to blokes who aren't the best in Australia at their position. Steve Smith may be the next Steve Waugh, he seems exciting, the talent is there, but he needs to settle on whether he's a classy bat or a leg spin bowler.  I don't think he is both.  After stating the obvious, then he should settle on a batting position as a pure batsman.  If he drops his bowling, maybe he could become something special.  We can only hope and Christ we need a new hero but I'm certainly not sold on his bowling just because he has blonde hair. Bottom line is that until he sorts out what he is for himself, we don't hand out baggy greens to project players.  I think his best option is to go back to Shield or be taken as a touring project player.

Steve O'Keefe is clearly a better spinner than Steve Smith, same goes for Nathan Hauritz, but I think O'Keefe is the best spinner in the country and he would be in my team right now.

Brad Haddin stays as keeper in my team and we also plonk him with the VC tag to take pressure of Clarke so that Clarke just churns out the runs. I've always like keepers as Vice Cap's. It doesn't overly undermine or pressure the real captain, the press don't focus on a keeper vice captain as much as a failing one dimensional batsman. The Keeper, especially one as experienced as Haddin is a logical choice, the responsibility doesn't add much in the way of extra pressure to the keeper as usually the keeper talks all day, speaks with the captain often and forever remains the bridesmaid in a position of natural respect. These attributes are the keepers natural lot in life.  I'm really not sold on the Clarke - Ponting captaincy dynamic...  not sure what's doing but it doesn't seem natural and Punter seems to look to Hads or Huss for support anyway.  Either way I don't think this affects Clarke's chances to be the next captain, it's just something that for me seems the best for the team and for Clarke and Ponting right now.

For the spin bowler, there are only two serious options. Either go back to Nathan Hauritz or fire Steve O'Keefe into the breach and stick with the kid as a member of the twelve until the conclusion of the Ashes series scheduled for Englands shores. No arguments, just do it and have faith in him. No more spinner revolving door. Which ever way they go, that would be the brief I'd give selectors. We need certainty in the spin department and someone who at the very least has a solid average at First Class level, and that someone is not Michael Beers. This "Beersy" bloke gets selected for Australia for the Boxing day test and at the same time gets dropped by Western Australia. This selection of Michael Beers proves to me that the entire selection panel is the problem. They invest 18 months in Hauritz, he shows form last summer, gets belted in India (who hasn't) and is given the boot for the Ashes for Doherty and you all know the story from there.

If Ricky Ponting can't work with economical Hauritz well O'Keefe (with a shield average of 15 per wicket and an economy rate of 2.8) is the main man from the Sydney Test and onward.

Now back to bronzing the fast bowlers. We need to find and or develop a lead bowler. Mitch Johnson is a strike bowler but not a lead bowler.  With Peter Siddle's solid into the wind trundling he obviously deserves a spot but he hasn't grown on me either.  Yeah he shows courage, but I'm not sure about his ability, maybe I'll give him that he's still very young and should only get better the longer he plays.

Ben Hilfenhaus will probably be in court facing burglary charges at summer end, and good riddance. How he got his hands on a Cricket Australia contract is one of the great con jobs of the 21st century.

I have a rap on Ryan Harris but now he is injured and to what extent puts his place in the team up in the air. Hopefully he'll be right and fit because he looks to be the best bowler in the country by light years.  It's plain he will not be in Sydney and that's for dead set sure but hopefully he's right for the test after that.  I think with him in the team, Mitch Johnson can chill and possibly be really who we want him to be.  Anyway Doug Bollinger appears to be coming back into form if his last Shield match is a guide and his face has been plastered on more KFC ads than the Colonel.  Of the others, there's not much. Trent Copeland appears economical, Mark Cameron looks sharpish - I've only seen him live once, but recent state selections suggest Copeland is ahead of him and probably Peter George.  No one is there with out an out speed. Personally, I'd be going to Brett Lee cap in hand begging for forgiveness and a test cricket statement... 18 months of Brett Lee carnage at test level is the ticket, and by that time hopefully Mitchell Johnson has found some consistency, Ryan Harris avoided injury, Dougy regains form, and a new young group of tear-aways begin to rise from no where like a phoenix.

My best team I'd work toward is.

M Hussey
U Khawaja
D Hussey
M Clarke
R Ponting (c)
S Watson
B Haddin
S O'Keefe
M Johnson
R Harris
D Bollinger

My 14 man tour team to Bangladesh is the same above 11 plus Peter Siddle, Steve Smith (purely as a developmental bat), and Nathan Hauritz as the 2nd Bangers spinner. Fingers crossed they have success in Bangers, build some confidence and then a break until their October journey to South Africa. Like I said, I'd like to see Brett Lee in there too but I'm a realist, the selectors would never ask him back.